Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. By either that mark or traditional reliever JAWS, the 33-year-old Kimbrel is the biggest gainer this year. The two were teammates from 2005-07, and Rolen was out at third base when Wainwright recorded the final out of the 2006 World Series for the St. Louis Cardinals.. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Hes undergone Tommy John surgery, and his career total of 76 wins is underwhelming. But is 40-year-old Adam Wainwright starting for the visiting Cardinals against the Dodgers in the winner-take-all tilt also on his way to joining Scherzer in the Hall of Fame? 34. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). Terms of Service. Greinke has won an ERA title in each league. The greatest lineups ever? His contract (seven years, $175 million) ensures he will pitch in Seattle at least through 2019, but his velocity numbers and declining ERA suggest his career may be on the downside. Sorry we could not verify that email address. He was merely a good pitcher on the Detroit Tigers, vastly overshadowed by teammate Justin Verlander. The key number regarding Gooden is 48.0, which is the average of his career bWAR, his bWAR7, his career fWAR, and his fWAR7. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. Adam Wainwright will return for his 19th season with the. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. The starting pitcher, who will enter his 19th season with the Cards, was drafted by the Atlanta Braves. Likewise, his 42.4 bWAR is lower than the likes of Javier Vazquez, Al Leiter, and Frank Viola. Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; hes going to be 36 in a few months and hes logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. Will the games most enigmatic Hall of Fame candidate, a pending free agent this winter, stick around to get it? An error has occurred while trying to update your details. What a different story we could be telling about 'Waino' had he stayed in Atlanta. It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. How Corbin Burnes became an ace by making his bed, Top moments from Brady, Manning, Jordan and other athletes hosting 'Saturday Night Live', Fantasy baseball rankings, projections, strategy and cheat sheets, Spring batting averages, runs up amid shift limits. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Throughout his career, Wainwright has won a World Series and has been selected to the All-Star game three times. If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. The Cardinals are calm. A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. Gibson got his 2,000th strikeout when Pittsburgh's Roberto Clemente was called out on July 13, 1969. We didn't recognize that password reset code. Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. But Adam Wainwright's story also isn't complete. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. Information from The Associated Press was used in this report. Eleven of the sixty-five are below Wainwright in terms of Hybrid JAWS. The veteran right-hander is the last remaining . How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. As if on schedule, we have our first spring-training round of Is Anything Wrong? with the pitcher. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. Your login session has expired. Don't miss out - sign up for our newsletters! Max Scherzer, already on the Cooperstown fast track before he was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, continued his march towards inner-circle status by authoring a dominant post-acquisition stretch for his new team (7-0 with a 1.98 in 11 starts for the Dodgers, who won each of his outings) on par with Doyle Alexander in 1987, Randy Johnson in 1998 and CC Sabathia in 2008. Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina played their final game in the majors, a disappointing 2-0 loss to eliminate them from the Wild Card round. NeverSober1900. He's a hell of a pitcher and even better human being. Predicting every Hall of Fame class through 2045 - ESPN But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. But Wainwright still had good value because he supplied 192 innings. Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. Todays pitcher will make it more for efficiency. It's an ex-Chip's Worldand we're just picking up the pieces. No Cy's (albeit 4 top 3 finishes). Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. He probably wont gain much more ground this year even assuming he does return, and as with the pitchers on either side of him in this list, free agency looms, though it seems unthinkable the Dodgers will let him depart. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). His 195 career wins have him tied for 132nd all-time, and his career strikeouts currently have him sitting 71st all-time. One other thing to note: since my reference point for old WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to 19 and 20 park factors and tweaks to 201720 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday. However, not all stories have happy endings. That may be what landed him on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation this year. But until we see Jack pitching in games against opposing hitters in game conditions down there in Florida and recovering on time to do it again, and again, and again Ill have to take the wait-and-see approach. But the Cardinals and the pitcher Cardinals changed the schedule for his first start; Flaherty threw on the backfields instead. Gerrit Cole (117 wins at age 31) and Chris Sale (114 wins at age 32) are the likeliest active pitchers to approach Wainwrights total. The best pitcher in MLB? While I dont think the statistical mistake that was inducting Rick Ferrell means that we should induct Mickey Tettleton, in my perfect world we would have sixteen Hall of Famers at the catcher position, though the ones who are in would be different (for instance, among the currently eligible, Gene Tenace would be there), and we would go from there. He just turned 30 on August 7, and hes already fifth in JAWS and third in peak among center fielders, but this has been largely a lost year due to a right calf strain thats already required the longest recovery time in at least six years. Now his current difficulties are being downplayed because the leg/glute tightness, the back spasms, the finger. Still, hes won 230 games, led the league in wins twice, and won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring. Is Adam Wainwright Hall of Fame or Hall of Very good? Twenty-eight are enshrined in Cooperstown everyone except Wainwright and his fellow active hurlers Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the latter trio of whom are expected to glide in Cooperstown, as well as Roger Clemens, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown and Vida Blue. Alas, just before the All-Star break, the 33-year-old southpaw landed on the injured list due to inflammation in his left forearm and hasnt even gotten to the point of a rehab stint yet after suffering a setback in late July. No ones winning 300 games again, probably, Maybe there will be a couple guys that have a chance Claytons got a chance, Max maybe. Adam Wainwright has a big decision to make this offseason. Pirates, Cardinals 2022 Opening Day FAQ - MLB.com Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. Or follow @seeingredpod on Twitter for a direct link. He is known for being a Baseball Player. Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed.