change_link = true; The final federal election opinion polls before we head to the polls on Saturday show the race has tightened after Labors lead dropped this week. //]]> if (!document.links) { "That assumption was manifestly incorrect in 2019," Professor Jackman says. Both incumbent MP Peta Murphy and Liberal candidate (and former Australia Survivor runner-up) Sharn Coombes were on hand with pamphlets in the Melbourne suburb of Carrum Downs, hoping to sway undecided voters. Essential is reporting undecided voters in its figures, and ABC is converting this into a traditional, two-party preferred figure by excluding them. Every major opinion poll failed to predict Scott Morrisons re-election in 2019, but once again news organisations have run numerous stories based on polls in the current campaign, including some that point to dramatic results nationally and in specific seats. By signing up, you agree to Pedestrian Group's Terms of Service and consent to our Privacy Policy. A survey released Friday by the Australian National University is also predicting the opposition Labor Party is in an election-winning position. Some pollsters provided breakdowns of their polls by state, whilst others only poll a specific state. Ipsos, in The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, put the Labor lead at six points, 53 to 47. The latest Newspoll suggests this outcome with the combined Liberal-Nationals primary vote falling two points to 34 per cent. (function() { Follow the topics, people and companies that matter to you. That will strengthen the integrity of legislation because of diversity of the views, he said. Newspoll, published by The Australian, suggested the Coalition trailed Labor 48 per cent to 52 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis going into election day. Primary Votes: Liberal/National, Polls: 34.8%, Result: 35.8% (Error: 1.0%) -Very Good ALP, Opinion polls have for years played a key part in Australian elections, highlighting issues that matter most to voters. 'gtm.start': L-NP 44.5%", "The ALP increases its lead over the L-NP as petrol prices spike well above $2 per litre: ALP 58% cf. It averages the results of the five pollsters conducting national polls: YouGov Galaxy, Essential, Resolve, Ipsos and Roy Morgan. Keep an eye on their impact in Angus Taylors seat of Hume, Josh Frydenbergs seat of Kooyong and Paul Fletchers seat of Bradfield. Im not ashamed. if(ignore != '' && all_links.href.search(ignore) != -1) { Pollsters now promise greater rigour, and have deployed some new techniques, but they have also urged voters to think differently about what polls can tell them. //